CovidLaws // Belgium // Risk map
COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment
Calculating the chance that one or more members of a group is/are infected.
Cases per 100k population in the past...
Ascertainment bias: incidence is multiplied by this number.
Age groups (empty=all)
|Province||0 - 9||10 - 19||20 - 29||30 - 39||40 - 49||50 - 59||60 - 69||70 - 79||80 - 89||90plus||All|
Based on the model of the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Base number: Positive tests in the past X days per 100k population. CDC recommends to use past 10 days.
Bias: As default, the value of three is set. This number depends on the positivity rate, for Belgium I assume that for one tested person, there are 2 infected but not tested.
For the age group ratio, the values of all Belgium is taken and calculated down to province size.
Formula used: 100 - (((1-(1/(100000/(cases*bias)))) ** groupsize) * 100)
Cases data is fetched every day at 10am from Sciensano.be
Thanks to Ricus van der Kwast from The Corona Diaries for the assistance.